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 Getting down to business ........

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Desolation Row
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BeitragThema: Getting down to business ........   10.07.13 15:33

''After a lengthy pause on the subject of how we should handle draft position and keeper totals in our fine league, I think it is time to bring it up again so that we can reach a resolution prior to the beginning of our draft.  Sparks were flying some time ago, as many of you will recall, so it will be nice to have this issue behind us.

Having thought it over quite a bit, I propose that we determine our total keepers as a function of our regular season record.  As we have done this season, 1st place will hold 10, 2nd place will hold 11, 3rd through 8th place will hold 12 and the 9th and 10th finishers will hold 13.  I like this for its simplicity, I like that ESPN handles it for us and I like that we don’t have the steps between the 3rd and 8th place positions that we had in the past.  As I mentioned before, those steps would not necessarily encourage one to tank, but it does create situations where a GM would be rewarded with a L rather than W.  Just to make myself clear, I am not accusing anyone of tanking, but am merely trying to create an environment where going for the win is always in a GMs best interest.  

One thing I dislike with using the regular season record for both Keeper Totals and Draft Position is that I am not convinced that it is the best determiner of who the stronger and who the weaker teams actually are.  Using this season as an example, I placed 4th overall when using regular season record as the determiner, however, if one were to look at my total points accumulated over the course of the regular season I drop down quite a bit in the rankings.  I don’t have the table in front of me, but if memory serves I drop down to 7th place.  To me that indicates that I was the benefactor of quite a few lucky bounces over the course of the season.  It was not that I was such a strong team, but rather that I caught the right GM at the right moment more often than not.  To use another example, we can look at The Fitzsy Stars in 2012.  At seasons end, Matt found himself in 9th place overall.  If, however, we look at his Total Points he shoots up to 5th overall and very nearly 4th.  Regular Season record is a solid tool for determining Keeper Totals I find, but to use it also for Draft Position is not optimal.  That is why I would like to introduce the Diff Factor.  This is simply the Total Points For minus the Total Points Against divided by the number of regular season weeks.  This factor is a great tool as it takes into account both PF and PA.  What is also nice is that ESPN totals this for us under the Final Standings Tab and plops the values in a table for our viewing pleasure.  Because I have a flare for the dramatic, I would like to suggest that we consider using this factor in a weighted lottery where no GM can gain or drop anything greater than 4 positions.  This is up for debate as I don’t even know what the NHL actually uses, but I like the concept.  I found a website that allows one to input the information for the weighted lottery and it will randomly spit out the results.  We could certainly find some fair means of carrying such a lottery out.  I would suggest that we include all teams in this weighted lottery.  We will need to discuss this obviously, but what if we gave the 1st place team a weighting factor of one, the second place team a rating of two, the third place team a weighting of three and so on down the line?  This would/could determine our Fall draft order.  Or would we need to tilt it even more?  1,3,5,7,9,11,13,15,17,19?  This is open, of course, for discussion.

I would also like to make one more additional suggestion.  I kindly ask each of you to sit down if you are standing or alternatively to stand up if you are currently sitting.  I propose that we each plop in an additional $10 per season which would accumulate for two seasons and then awarded to the team with the highest Total Points over that time period.  This would have the effect of adding an extra incentive to always strive to put as many points on the board as possible and would result in a rather dramatic payment of $200 smackers to one lucky GM every second season.  Or perhaps a $150 and $50 split.  Fun eh?  Even the teams that might be struggling would have incentive to adjust their rosters each week to maximize points.  Those asleep at the wheel may reduce their chances at winning the pot.

Well, there you have it.  That is all from the bald guy.
Look forward to hearing feedback……..I think.''


Zuletzt von Desolation Row am 27.08.13 23:17 bearbeitet; insgesamt 1-mal bearbeitet
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Chris Catrini

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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   10.07.13 23:41

Well written, well thought out, I particularly like the " no gain or drop more than 4 positions".

My first question is "why". A league with such intelligence and integrity should not need to watch each other for dumping. An obvious dumping participant should simply be penalized by loosing the numbers of keepers allowed. Most of what you suggested I have seen and played with before and it does work , but those leagues have 14 teams and an obvious need for policing. Ours is much more friendly and controlled. Everyone should be commended on their input to get us where we are today, my thanks, but let's not make drastic changes for simple problems. A lottery for the draft order makes sense, favoring the worst team and not including the best. To use a small sample of any given season is not justifiable by any statistician that I know. The greater the sample the more precise the data. If you wish to blend the playoffs, total points, wins/losses, and final standings that does make sense but seems a bit difficult to process. The importance of each of those factors should be weighed and rewarded, but how we combine them to find the worst team should be enough of a conclusion as to who drafts in what order. Once again, let's not over play a strike year schedule and a shortened season, as the new norm.

Greg you and your crome dome are always looking out for us all, I am just trying to help you get a perspective form the other side of the tracks. Thanks for the suggestion. I would love to see it back tested before we implemented it though, beyond one year if possible. Welcome back...talk to you all soon.

Chris
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Fire & Fury

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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   11.07.13 10:21

I like that you have given this some thought, and trying to make things "fair" and "perfect".  I think that things do not have to be that complicated.  We have all grown together with this fine league, but ever since the origin of the league, every year there is some sort of "dramatic" change to something that is working fine because of someone's fears.  The fact that we have 2 commissioners is great because we don't have a possible dictatorship.  I believe this has worked out well.  Everyone should just let the co-commissioners handle "tanking", "uninvolvement", etc.  That's their function and Matt and Greg do it very well.  I never would have thought that someone in this league would actually "tank" until someone mentioned the idea to the forum.  That's when it became an issue, not because it actually happened.  When Rich and Christine dropped off the face of the planet, the co-commissioners took care of the matter.  When Butch was being a cancer to the league even before it started, the Co-commissioners took care of it.  We have a good bunch of people in this league, always have and hopefully, always will.  Let's not lose track of that fact.

Let's not make things more difficult or complicated by adding in all these statistical formulas to decide on 10 teams where they should be drafting.  Last place team should pick first and so on.  

Or, you can do like I do in one of my leagues and all this nonsense doesn't matter.  For example, every team keeps 10 (or whatever number) players regardless of finish.  Then every season, you place 10 team names in one hat, and the numbers 1-10 in another hat.  Determine the order of draft by picking a team name out of one hat, and then the draft position out of the other.  Then reverse for the next selection by picking a number, then the team and alternate until the last position is filled.  this is totally random.  

But I think to keep it as real as the real NHL, the draft position should be reverse order of the standings, with the possibility that every team has the same number of keepers regardless.  Why make things complicated.
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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   11.07.13 19:20

I like your Idea Greg. If we come up with a website that can handle the lottery, I think it would be fun. And love your idea of two years combined totals. That would be interesting to see who can come up with back to back good seasons as well as punish tanking. Solves all issues.
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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   28.07.13 23:45

As many of you may or may not know, or may or may not care to know, I spent this past week on a mini-paddling adventure in Algonquin Park with my family.  I had, as might be expected, some extra moments to think about things over the course of the week.  Being a fantasy hockey addict, my mind drifted occasionally to our fine league and specifically to this little situation we have concerning Keepers and Draft Order.  As eloquent and grammatically correct as my initial post in this thread was, I do think that it is a tad on the complicated side.  And judging from the feedback, both in this thread and through irate, paint peeling PM's, I think that is the general consensus.  Therefore, it is with great pleasure and fanfare that I unveil my updated, revamped, new and improved, and much simplified proposal here and now.  Before you read any further, please go grab a cold glass of water and perhaps a granola bar or a fig newton.

Good.

So, let's keep this bit:

Having thought it over quite a bit, I propose that we determine our total keepers as a function of our regular season record.  As we have done this season, 1st place will hold 10, 2nd place will hold 11, 3rd through 8th place will hold 12 and the 9th and 10th finishers will hold 13.  I like this for its simplicity, I like that ESPN handles it for us and I like that we don’t have the steps between the 3rd and 8th place positions that we had in the past.  As I mentioned before, those steps would not necessarily encourage one to tank, but it does create situations where a GM would be rewarded with a L rather than W.  Just to make myself clear, I am not accusing anyone of tanking, but am merely trying to create an environment where going for the win is always in a GMs best interest.





And dump this complex, but rather clever bit:


One thing I dislike with using the regular season record for both Keeper Totals and Draft Position is that I am not convinced that it is the best determiner of who the stronger and who the weaker teams actually are.  Using this season as an example, I placed 4th overall when using regular season record as the determiner, however, if one were to look at my total points accumulated over the course of the regular season I drop down quite a bit in the rankings.  I don’t have the table in front of me, but if memory serves I drop down to 7th place.  To me that indicates that I was the benefactor of quite a few lucky bounces over the course of the season.  It was not that I was such a strong team, but rather that I caught the right GM at the right moment more often than not.  To use another example, we can look at The Fitzsy Stars in 2012.  At seasons end, Matt found himself in 9th place overall.  If, however, we look at his Total Points he shoots up to 5th overall and very nearly 4th.  Regular Season record is a solid tool for determining Keeper Totals I find, but to use it also for Draft Position is not optimal.  That is why I would like to introduce the Diff Factor.  This is simply the Total Points For minus the Total Points Against divided by the number of regular season weeks.  This factor is a great tool as it takes into account both PF and PA.  What is also nice is that ESPN totals this for us under the Final Standings Tab and plops the values in a table for our viewing pleasure.  Because I have a flare for the dramatic, I would like to suggest that we consider using this factor in a weighted lottery where no GM can gain or drop anything greater than 4 positions.  This is up for debate as I don’t even know what the NHL actually uses, but I like the concept.  I found a website that allows one to input the information for the weighted lottery and it will randomly spit out the results.  We could certainly find some fair means of carrying such a lottery out.  I would suggest that we include all teams in this weighted lottery.  We will need to discuss this obviously, but what if we gave the 1st place team a weighting factor of one, the second place team a rating of two, the third place team a weighting of three and so on down the line?  This would/could determine our Fall draft order.  Or would we need to tilt it even more?  1,3,5,7,9,11,13,15,17,19?  This is open, of course, for discussion.




We replace that nonsense above, with our old method of determining draft order by inverse order of regular season rankings with this one, small, almost breathtakingly simple tweak:

We introduce a lottery between the two non playoff teams to determine the order of 1st and 2nd pick.  There are roughly 2375 ways to do this and I am all ears, but I would suggest the following way:

Using 2012 as an example, Fitzsy Stars finished 2nd last with a 7-12 record and PoPo finished last with a 5-14 record.  I would give Matt 12 chances vs Gordon's 14 chances to win that 1st overall pick.  There are websites out there that can handle this for us easily.  Gord would have a 54% chance of winning and Matt a 46% chance.  Nice and simple.

And finally, I would still suggest that we try this, although I am by no means absolutely set on it.  I just thought it would be fun:

I would also like to make one more additional suggestion.  I kindly ask each of you to sit down if you are standing or alternatively to stand up if you are currently sitting.  I propose that we each plop in an additional $10 per season which would accumulate for two seasons and then awarded to the team with the highest Total Points over that time period.  This would have the effect of adding an extra incentive to always strive to put as many points on the board as possible and would result in a rather dramatic payment of $200 smackers to one lucky GM every second season.  Or perhaps a $150 and $50 split. Fun eh?  Even the teams that might be struggling would have incentive to adjust their rosters each week to maximize points.  Those asleep at the wheel may reduce their chances at winning the pot.





OK chicos.  Let's get this solved.

G
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Arthur Tigers SCOOPnRED

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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   29.07.13 11:12

I propose that we each plop in an additional $10 per season which would accumulate for two seasons and then awarded to the team with the highest Total Points over that time period.

Hmmm... it will reward the winners again.

The money isn't what interests me in any of my pools. It's the group. The best prize we have is the one that allows the winner to control the pic on the web page. There would be no better prize than to have everyone looking at a Tigger holding a Stanley Cup for a year!

Draft order
I've always found the snake draft a bit odd. It's usually a start up tool. After the inaugural draft then seeded to the results from the last reguar season.

Lottery
In a lot of ways, I support the idea of only the bottom two getting a crack at winning the lottery. The overall concept is to push the league towards parity.

If everyone is included in the lottery, then teams must not be allowed to move up more than two or three spots in the draft, similar to the NHL if I'm understanding correctly.

In 2012-13, perhaps there was parity to the greatest degree ever. This means that more GMs than ever, will have believed they had a chance to win, each and every week and in the playoffs. This is good. We don't want teams to fall way behind. This leads to bad trades, disinterest and frustration for the group.

Additional contests, in any format are good for the league. Perhaps the results would adjust the draft order in perhaps the sixth, seventh, eighth round of the draft or the January draft. Imagine having an independent contest based on the Worlds (either Jr. or Sr). Team collecting the most points in the contest gets the first pick in the eighth round... a bit of work, but not fabulously detailed. Picking NHL game winners, for a month, with the best record being rewarded and poorest drafting last on that round. Running a side-by-side NHL player prediction scoring pool. Pick 25 players - most points wins. Stanley Cup playoffs - pick the round winners. This would create more reasons to play and pay attention. Having something that keeps us interested in the real NHL playoffs would be good. The prize of drafting earlier would be nice, but beating everyone else would be better!
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Fire & Fury

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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   31.07.13 10:43

I like the $10 add'l fee and have no problem with that.


9th and 10th (non-playoff teams) being determined by some sort of lottery. The number of ballots being determined by number of losses is a brilliant idea.


I also agree with the draft order being determined by the inverse order of the regular season's final standings. 1st place drafts 10th, 2nd place drafts 9th, etc.


I also nominate Greg as the most determined and cutest co-commissioner on this side of the universe. Sorry Matt! You come in a close, very close 2nd.

Back to the PRIMEPUCKS GUIDE!

Onward!
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Desolation Row
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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   31.07.13 10:45

Thank you Ray!
It is true, I am a little cuter than Matt. His buttocks are much firmer, however.

G
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Fire & Fury

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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   31.07.13 10:49

I wish you didn't tell me that! It's going in the GUIDE!
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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   31.07.13 10:52

Sorry Ray......
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Desolation Row
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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   31.07.13 10:53

There is so much more I could tell.
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Fire & Fury

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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   31.07.13 10:58

I'm sure you do. Maybe when we are sitting around the campfire shooting the breeze with Scoop, Matt, Wiz, Brandon, John, Jarrett and the rest of the crew you can divulge some of those quaint little tidbits about our friend Matt.
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Arthur Tigers SCOOPnRED

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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   01.08.13 10:20

If we have a camp fire, I'll be certain to bring Wiz!
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Fire & Fury

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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   01.08.13 14:22

Atta boy!
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Soo Storm

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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   11.08.13 19:32

Good evening here are my thoughts on the topics.

I like the idea of putting 10 more in and having It go to the team with most total points (including playoffs) for two years. Or even giving it to the the manager who has the best record in predicting our weekly matchup winners.

Draft lottery could be fun. Simple is probably better though and we shoukd just go by regular season standings.

Keeper totals I like what we have. 10 for 1st 11 for 2nd- 12 for teams 3rd to 8th and 9th and 10th keeping 13 with an additional keeper
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Soo Storm

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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   12.08.13 10:21

i mean 9 and 10 seeding keeping an additional prospect... i think that is the way we have it set.

in the end im good with what the majority wants to do.
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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   22.08.13 11:56

drop day is sunday!

lets get the details of this down
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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   22.08.13 17:59

Desolation Row schrieb:
As many of you may or may not know, or may or may not care to know, I spent this past week on a mini-paddling adventure in Algonquin Park with my family.  I had, as might be expected, some extra moments to think about things over the course of the week.  Being a fantasy hockey addict, my mind drifted occasionally to our fine league and specifically to this little situation we have concerning Keepers and Draft Order.  As eloquent and grammatically correct as my initial post in this thread was, I do think that it is a tad on the complicated side.  And judging from the feedback, both in this thread and through irate, paint peeling PM's, I think that is the general consensus.  Therefore, it is with great pleasure and fanfare that I unveil my updated, revamped, new and improved, and much simplified proposal here and now.  Before you read any further, please go grab a cold glass of water and perhaps a granola bar or a fig newton.

Good.

So, let's keep this bit:

Having thought it over quite a bit, I propose that we determine our total keepers as a function of our regular season record.  As we have done this season, 1st place will hold 10, 2nd place will hold 11, 3rd through 8th place will hold 12 and the 9th and 10th finishers will hold 13.  I like this for its simplicity, I like that ESPN handles it for us and I like that we don’t have the steps between the 3rd and 8th place positions that we had in the past.  As I mentioned before, those steps would not necessarily encourage one to tank, but it does create situations where a GM would be rewarded with a L rather than W.  Just to make myself clear, I am not accusing anyone of tanking, but am merely trying to create an environment where going for the win is always in a GMs best interest.





And dump this complex, but rather clever bit:


One thing I dislike with using the regular season record for both Keeper Totals and Draft Position is that I am not convinced that it is the best determiner of who the stronger and who the weaker teams actually are.  Using this season as an example, I placed 4th overall when using regular season record as the determiner, however, if one were to look at my total points accumulated over the course of the regular season I drop down quite a bit in the rankings.  I don’t have the table in front of me, but if memory serves I drop down to 7th place.  To me that indicates that I was the benefactor of quite a few lucky bounces over the course of the season.  It was not that I was such a strong team, but rather that I caught the right GM at the right moment more often than not.  To use another example, we can look at The Fitzsy Stars in 2012.  At seasons end, Matt found himself in 9th place overall.  If, however, we look at his Total Points he shoots up to 5th overall and very nearly 4th.  Regular Season record is a solid tool for determining Keeper Totals I find, but to use it also for Draft Position is not optimal.  That is why I would like to introduce the Diff Factor.  This is simply the Total Points For minus the Total Points Against divided by the number of regular season weeks.  This factor is a great tool as it takes into account both PF and PA.  What is also nice is that ESPN totals this for us under the Final Standings Tab and plops the values in a table for our viewing pleasure.  Because I have a flare for the dramatic, I would like to suggest that we consider using this factor in a weighted lottery where no GM can gain or drop anything greater than 4 positions.  This is up for debate as I don’t even know what the NHL actually uses, but I like the concept.  I found a website that allows one to input the information for the weighted lottery and it will randomly spit out the results.  We could certainly find some fair means of carrying such a lottery out.  I would suggest that we include all teams in this weighted lottery.  We will need to discuss this obviously, but what if we gave the 1st place team a weighting factor of one, the second place team a rating of two, the third place team a weighting of three and so on down the line?  This would/could determine our Fall draft order.  Or would we need to tilt it even more?  1,3,5,7,9,11,13,15,17,19?  This is open, of course, for discussion.




We replace that nonsense above, with our old method of determining draft order by inverse order of regular season rankings with this one, small, almost breathtakingly simple tweak:

We introduce a lottery between the two non playoff teams to determine the order of 1st and 2nd pick.  There are roughly 2375 ways to do this and I am all ears, but I would suggest the following way:

Using 2012 as an example, Fitzsy Stars finished 2nd last with a 7-12 record and PoPo finished last with a 5-14 record.  I would give Matt 12 chances vs Gordon's 14 chances to win that 1st overall pick.  There are websites out there that can handle this for us easily.  Gord would have a 54% chance of winning and Matt a 46% chance.  Nice and simple.

And finally, I would still suggest that we try this, although I am by no means absolutely set on it.  I just thought it would be fun:

I would also like to make one more additional suggestion.  I kindly ask each of you to sit down if you are standing or alternatively to stand up if you are currently sitting.  I propose that we each plop in an additional $10 per season which would accumulate for two seasons and then awarded to the team with the highest Total Points over that time period.  This would have the effect of adding an extra incentive to always strive to put as many points on the board as possible and would result in a rather dramatic payment of $200 smackers to one lucky GM every second season.  Or perhaps a $150 and $50 split. Fun eh?  Even the teams that might be struggling would have incentive to adjust their rosters each week to maximize points.  Those asleep at the wheel may reduce their chances at winning the pot.





OK chicos.  Let's get this solved.

G
Sorry, I forgot to comment on this thread. I read it a while back and then forgot about it in the craziness of summer travel.

Draft Order: I like the way you have it now -- nice and simple. I don't mind that the 9th and 10th place team have a draft lottery to determine who gets the first overall pick.

I think we should maintain the snake draft format, however, because as the last five years have shown, it is tough enough to repeat as champion in this league because of the cascading format. I think that is far more valuable for maintaining balance in the fine league, and doing away with the snake draft format would make it even harder for teams that win one year to repeat the following year.

Additional Funds: I am not in favour of raising the annual fee, despite the fact that I've taken a good deal of the winnings over the last few years. Like Scoop, I'm not in this for the cash prizes, but rather the friendships and bragging rights.

However, if the league voted for an additional $10 I think it should be an annual prize of some sort, like for having the best track record of picking the weekly winners.

And thanks for the compliments about my tight butt cheeks, Greg. I've been keeping them that way just for you, and am pleased that you noticed. Wink
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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   25.08.13 20:53

That European water does funny things to people...

Smile
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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   27.08.13 9:56

I'm good with whatever. I think do a pool to finalize something or have the comishs decide what's best for league with these issues
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Juggernauts

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Number of posts : 572
Age : 47
Location : Guelph, ON
Registration date : 28.04.10

BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   27.08.13 13:51

It seems to me that everyone is ok with the keeper format. So we only have to decide if we want to add 10$ for a legacy prize, add 10$ for best prediction, not add 10$, and or do we want to have some kind of lottery for the bottom 2 guys.

My take is that adding 10$ for best prediction doesn't solve any issues, just adds another prize.
adding 10$ for legacy prize and or having a lottery helps prevent tanking(so i'm obviously for these).

We have to figure out if we care about tanking or not. Maybe one option is just to say it's ok to tank?? they do it in the NHL. Over the seasons i've been in this league people near the bottom at the trade dead line often trade top talent for prospects to the top teams. This is a kind of tanking.... is it wrong? If it's not wrong should it be rewarded with first pick as well??

People that forget to put in their lineup is a kind of tanking (that has annoyed many of us over the years). Should it be rewarded with first overall pick?

We just have to figure out how much we care about tanking. I would be uncomfortable calling anyone out on tanking in the two examples i gave. But I also think we shouldn't reward it necessarily with better picks. Adding the 10$ legacy prize doesn't stop it, it just makes it harder for those to win it. And the lottery between the bottom two doesn't stop tanking either, it just doesn't necessarily reward tanking with the first overall prospect.
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Desolation Row
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Location : Chur, CH
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BeitragThema: Re: Getting down to business ........   27.08.13 15:33

I, Greg Chapler, am for the following:

1. $10 Legacy Prize: This should provide some good entertainment for us and will not necessarily go to the team that has won the regular season championship. It will be an additional motivator for GMs to put points on the board from start to finish.

2. Lottery for the two non playoff teams: I love this idea. Simple to implement as well.

I will sit down and create a poll tonight so that we can let everyone have their say.
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