My problem with dobber's guide

Since we drafted, and I've been talking to people about trades. I have found an alarming trend. That trend is taking dobber's guide as the final say on what a player should be valued at based on dobber's prediction. I keep getting responses "Dobber's guide said he'll get this, as you can see, I'm giving up too many points by trading this player away." Now I won't go on record stating that I know more than dobber. When it comes to up to date information on players, dobber is the man. He keeps a good record of prospects, and has some writing skills, as do many of their contributors. I'd like to state on how accurate my predictions are, but i never kept track (I should, and maybe I will this year), but I'd trust my own insticts before dobber's guide. Here's why:
Taking a look at the chart below you can see how low his percentages are compared to all the major mags and websites. He has the 2nd highest deviation from his predictions, he over points the most players and undervalues the least. One could say he goes wild while making his predictions. His exact numbers have the lowest percentage. 2nd lowest within the 5% range, lowest BY far in the 10% range, and again the lowest BY far in the 20% range.

That's why I'll never buy the guide, nor will I listen to dobber about anything related to points totals, he knows his prospects, and is current about player information. He's a great resource to have, but NOT the final say on point predictions. Anyways, that's my little thing, enjoy the chart

I guess you have a huge advantage over the rest of us then. Should we just give you the league crown and the $600 right now?

yes

Okay, I'll quote you on that! LOL.

lol, good!

Yeah there are things in that guide that I take with a grain of salt and when it comes to things I generally go with instinct. I think there are for sure players that Dobber over-shoots the numbers on - for instance his take on the Oilers is.... well its a bit off (though recently it has been coming more in line with reality in terms of who might make the team and such). Overall I think it is a decent tool to have but then again a hammer cannot fix a flat tire.

Indeed, its an extra tool, but not the one you should live by. I buy two magazines to complement my gut instincts.

Personally, I consult a number of different sources besides Dobber. However, I do find his ratings a good rule of thumb. Obviously every "expert's" opinion has to be taken with a grain of salt. It's a best guess. That's all.

I would be interested to know where you got your stats on the different prediction sources. As well, are the stats for last year's production?

Yep, these are straight from the mags of last year, and the begining of last year for tsn, yahoo and such. Like I said, I don't buy dobber's guide. But I know who does, and after the season is over I get a hold of the file. I have a chart for two years ago as well. Its on my other hard drive which I'll be posting up soon, to solidify my point in showing this was not just a one year occurance. When it comes to fantasy hockey, I do my research, and to busy myself during the offseason, its where I look at stats the most

my problem with dobber is that his site is slower than molasses in january--especially his message board system

SCOOP n RED do not use Dobbers Guide as "the last word". We haven't bought it yet. We will, next time I get my bank statement, so I can finish up on the Pay Pal stuff. Matt should have gotten a cheque in the mail about a month ago now! Infact I know there are some strong inconsistencies between Dobbers beliefs and SCOOP n RED's beliefs!

I was smiling last week when Dobber appeared to come on board with our Salmela selection.

SCOOP n RED

Yes Scoop, cheque was received and processed.